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Vocera Communications, Inc. (NYSE:VCRA), Hermitage Offshore Services Ltd. (NYSE:PSV): Quant Signal Evaluation & Review

Here will take a quick scan of Earnings Yield information on shares of Vocera Communications, Inc. (NYSE:VCRA). Currently, the Earnings to Price (Yield) is -0.023335, Earnings Yield is -0.017945, and Earnings Yield 5 year average is -0.021380. Earnings yield provides a way for investors to help measure returns. Investors may choose to compare the earnings yield of stocks to money market instruments, treasuries, or bonds. The firm will look to it’s next scheduled report date to try to improve on these numbers.

When doing stock research, there is plenty of easily measureable data regarding publically traded companies. There is also plenty of information that is not easily measured such as competitive advantage, quality of staff, and company reputation. Because there are forces such as the human element that come into play when selecting stocks, prices may not always move as expected. Even after crunching all the numbers and digging deep into a specific company, the stock’s performance still might not match expectations. Investors may realize that sometimes perception can be more powerful than reality. Human emotions can change very rapidly, and so can the prevailing market sentiment as well.

Checking in on some valuation rankings, Vocera Communications, Inc. (NYSE:VCRA) has a Value Composite score of 75. Developed by James O’Shaughnessy, the VC score uses five valuation ratios. These ratios are price to earnings, price to cash flow, EBITDA to EV, price to book value, and price to sales. The VC is displayed as a number between 1 and 100. In general, a company with a score closer to 0 would be seen as undervalued, and a score closer to 100 would indicate an overvalued company. Adding a sixth ratio, shareholder yield, we can view the Value Composite 2 score which is currently sitting at 77.

FCF

Turning to Free Cash Flow Growth (FCF Growth) is the free cash flow of the current year minus the free cash flow from the previous year, divided by last year’s free cash flow.  The FCF Growth of Vocera Communications, Inc. (NYSE:VCRA) is 3.649901.  Free cash flow (FCF) is the cash produced by the company minus capital expenditure.  This cash is what a company uses to meet its financial obligations, such as making payments on debt or to pay out dividends.  The Free Cash Flow Score (FCF Score) is a helpful tool in calculating the free cash flow growth with free cash flow stability – this gives investors the overall quality of the free cash flow.  The FCF Score of Vocera Communications, Inc. (NYSE:VCRA) is 2.995735.  Experts say the higher the value, the better, as it means that the free cash flow is high, or the variability of free cash flow is low or both.

Watching some historical volatility numbers on shares of Vocera Communications, Inc. (NYSE:VCRA), we can see that the 12 month volatility is presently 42.642900. The 6 month volatility is 35.384300, and the 3 month is spotted at 37.028700. Following volatility data can help measure how much the stock price has fluctuated over the specified time period. Although past volatility action may help project future stock volatility, it may also be vastly different when taking into account other factors that may be driving price action during the measured time period.  Heading into earnings season investors often take close note of the volatility levels ahead of and immediately after the earnings report. 

Price Index

The Price Index is a ratio that indicates the return of a share price over a past period. The price index of Vocera Communications, Inc. (NYSE:VCRA) for last month was 0.97487. This is calculated by taking the current share price and dividing by the share price one month ago. If the ratio is greater than 1, then that means there has been an increase in price over the month. If the ratio is less than 1, then we can determine that there has been a decrease in price. Similarly, investors look up the share price over 12 month periods. The Price Index 12m for Vocera Communications, Inc. (NYSE:VCRA) is 0.71819.
Price Range 52 Weeks

Some of the best financial predictions are formed by using a variety of financial tools. The Price Range 52 Weeks is one of the tools that investors use to determine the lowest and highest price at which a stock has traded in the previous 52 weeks. The Price Range of Vocera Communications, Inc. (NYSE:VCRA) over the past 52 weeks is 0.586000. The 52-week range can be found in the stock’s quote summary.

Quant Data
Shifting gears, we can see that Vocera Communications, Inc. (NYSE:VCRA) has a Q.i. Value of 57.00000. The Q.i. Value ranks companies using four ratios. These ratios consist of EBITDA Yield, FCF Yield, Liquidity, and Earnings Yield. The purpose of the Q.i. Value is to help identify companies that are the most undervalued. Typically, the lower the value, the more undervalued the company tends to be.

Another signal that many company execs and investors don’t want to talk about is the C-Score. The C-Score is a system developed by James Montier that helps determine whether a company is involved in inflating their financial statements.  The C-Score is calculated by a variety of items, including a growing difference in net income verse cash flow, increasing days outstanding, growing days sales of inventory, increasing assets to sales, declines in depreciation, and high total asset growth.  The C-Score of Vocera Communications, Inc. (NYSE:VCRA) is 4.00000.  The score ranges on a scale of -1 to 6.  If the score is -1, then there is not enough information to determine the C-Score.  If the number is at zero (0) then there is no evidence of fraudulent book cooking, whereas a number of 6 indicates a high likelihood of unusual activity. The C-Score assists investors in assessing the validity of financials. 

F-Score

At the time of writing, Vocera Communications, Inc. (NYSE:VCRA) has a Piotroski F-Score of 3. The F-Score may help discover companies with strengthening balance sheets. The score may also be used to spot the weak performers. Joseph Piotroski developed the F-Score which employs nine different variables based on the company financial statement. A single point is assigned to each test that a stock passes. Typically, a stock scoring an 8 or 9 would be seen as strong. On the other end, a stock with a score from 0-2 would be viewed as weak.

Investors might be looking at portfolio performance for the year and celebrating some big winners. Knowing the proper time to sell big winners can be just as important as knowing when to trim losses and cut out the losers. Investors may have become attached to a certain winning stock that nobody else seemed to notice. Holding on to a winner based on some type of emotion may end up hurting the portfolio down the line. Periodically reviewing the portfolio and tweaking the balance may be necessary to help maintain profits over the next year. Maybe there are some new names that seem poised to make a jump. Taking some profits from previous winners might help provide a boost of confidence to help the investor pull off the next big trade.

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Earnings Yield is calculated by taking the operating income or earnings before interest and taxes (EBIT) and dividing it by the Enterprise Value of the company.  The Earnings Yield for Hermitage Offshore Services Ltd. (NYSE:PSV) stands at -0.183726.  Earnings Yield helps investors measure the return on investment for a given company.  Similarly, the Earnings Yield Five Year Average is the five year average operating income or EBIT divided by the current enterprise value.  The Earnings Yield Five Year average for Hermitage Offshore Services Ltd. (NYSE:PSV) is -0.067989.  Further, the Earnings to Price yield of Hermitage Offshore Services Ltd. NYSE:PSV is -6.702323.  This is calculated by taking the earnings per share and dividing it by the last closing share price.  This is one of the most popular methods investors use to evaluate a company’s financial performance.

Sharp investors typically realize that stock returns can fluctuate, and the periods of extreme ups and downs can sometimes be quite long. It can be very difficult to predict when a big market downturn will occur. However, investors who have a plan in place will often find themselves in a better position than those who do not. Investors following an individual plan can include some preparation for the unknown. The plan may involve specific criteria, and it may be uniquely tailored to suit the individual’s goals. When markets get choppy, it can be tempting for the individual investor to go into survival mode. Some of the best stock buying opportunities will present themselves during a lengthy period of decline. Being ready to pounce on these opportunities might end up being a huge benefit to the investor when the time comes.

Quant Signals – Value Composite, C- Score, MF Rank, M-Score, ERP5

The Value Composite One (VC1) is a method that investors use to determine a company’s value.  The VC1 of Hermitage Offshore Services Ltd. (NYSE:PSV) is 75.  A company with a value of 0 is thought to be an undervalued company, while a company with a value of 100 is considered an overvalued company.  The VC1 is calculated using the price to book value, price to sales, EBITDA to EV, price to cash flow, and price to earnings.  Similarly, the Value Composite Two (VC2) is calculated with the same ratios, but adds the Shareholder Yield.  The Value Composite Two of Hermitage Offshore Services Ltd. (NYSE:PSV) is 81.

Hermitage Offshore Services Ltd. (NYSE:PSV) currently has a Montier C-score of 2.00000. This indicator was developed by James Montier in an attempt to identify firms that were altering financial numbers in order to appear better on paper. The score ranges from zero to six where a 0 would indicate no evidence of book cooking, and a 6 would indicate a high likelihood of something amiss. A C-score of -1 would indicate that there is not enough information available to calculate the score. Montier used six inputs in the calculation. These inputs included a growing difference between net income and cash flow from operations, increasing receivable days, growing day’s sales of inventory, increasing other current assets, decrease in depreciation relative to gross property plant and equipment, and high total asset growth.  

The MF Rank (aka the Magic Formula) is a formula that pinpoints a valuable company trading at a good price.  The formula is calculated by looking at companies that have a high earnings yield as well as a high return on invested capital.  The MF Rank of Hermitage Offshore Services Ltd. (NYSE:PSV) is 15174.  A company with a low rank is considered a good company to invest in.  The Magic Formula was introduced in a book written by Joel Greenblatt, entitled, “The Little Book that Beats the Market”.

Hermitage Offshore Services Ltd. (NYSE:PSV) has an M-score Beneish of -999.000000. This M-score model was developed by Messod Beneish in order to detect manipulation of financial statements. The score uses a combination of eight different variables. The specifics of the variables and formula can be found in the Beneish paper “The Detection of Earnings Manipulation”.

The last signal we’ll look at is the ERP5 Rank.  The ERP5 Rank is an investment tool that analysts use to discover undervalued companies.  The ERP5 looks at the Price to Book ratio, Earnings Yield, ROIC and 5 year average ROIC.  The ERP5 of Hermitage Offshore Services Ltd. (NYSE:PSV) is 12644.  The lower the ERP5 rank, the more undervalued a company is thought to be.

Volatility/PI

Stock volatility is a percentage that indicates whether a stock is a desirable purchase.  Investors look at the Volatility 12m to determine if a company has a low volatility percentage or not over the course of a year.  The Volatility 12m of Hermitage Offshore Services Ltd. (NYSE:PSV) is 102.301700.  This is calculated by taking weekly log normal returns and standard deviation of the share price over one year annualized.  The lower the number, a company is thought to have low volatility.  The Volatility 3m is a similar percentage determined by the daily log normal returns and standard deviation of the share price over 3 months.  The Volatility 3m of Hermitage Offshore Services Ltd. (NYSE:PSV) is 74.400500.  The Volatility 6m is the same, except measured over the course of six months.  The Volatility 6m is 105.288000.

We can now take a quick look at some historical stock price index data. Hermitage Offshore Services Ltd. (NYSE:PSV) presently has a 10 month price index of 0.19211. The price index is calculated by dividing the current share price by the share price ten months ago. A ratio over one indicates an increase in share price over the period. A ratio lower than one shows that the price has decreased over that time period. Looking at some alternate time periods, the 12 month price index is 0.14314, the 24 month is 0.09934, and the 36 month is 0.03951. Narrowing in a bit closer, the 5 month price index is 0.45768, the 3 month is 0.47097, and the 1 month is currently 0.83429.

ROIC

The Return on Invested Capital (aka ROIC) for Hermitage Offshore Services Ltd. (NYSE:PSV) is -0.158709.  The Return on Invested Capital is a ratio that determines whether a company is profitable or not.  It tells investors how well a company is turning their capital into profits.  The ROIC is calculated by dividing the net operating profit (or EBIT) by the employed capital.  The employed capital is calculated by subrating current liabilities from total assets.  Similarly, the Return on Invested Capital Quality ratio is a tool in evaluating the quality of a company’s ROIC over the course of five years.  The ROIC Quality of Hermitage Offshore Services Ltd. (NYSE:PSV) is 0.589762.  This is calculated by dividing the five year average ROIC by the Standard Deviation of the 5 year ROIC.  The ROIC 5 year average is calculated using the five year average EBIT, five year average (net working capital and net fixed assets).  The ROIC 5 year average of Hermitage Offshore Services Ltd. (NYSE:PSV) is -0.036406.

Top notch investors are usually adept at filtering through the constant financial headlines. Now more than ever, there is an unprecedented amount of news and data regarding publically traded companies. Most of the focus is typically on the short-term and it tends to focus around near-term forecasts. Although more information is probably a good thing when looking at the bigger picture, being able to zoom in on the proper information can be quite a challenge. Tuning out all the unnecessary noise isn’t easy, but it may help the investor make better decisions. Constantly switching investments based on the headlines of the day may end up leaving the investor wondering what went wrong. Analyzing the right information can be an essential part of any solid stock investing plan.

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